Canadiens vs Lightning Game 4 Stats Breakdown & Game 5 Prediction
Canadiens vs Lightning Game 5 Prediction — Full Series Breakdown, Play-by-Play & Game 5 Intelligence
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The Montreal Canadiens vs The Tampa Bay Lightning
Games 1–4 complete series dashboard, penalty conversion, scoring chronology, overtime pressure, matchup analytics, and Game 5 tactical prediction board.
Canadiens vsLightning
A complete front-end visual stat sheet for Games 1–4 with scoring, penalties, special teams, matchup context, goaltending overview, and Game 5 prediction board.
Series through Game 4 · Game 5 in Tampa Bay
Series Snapshot
Four games complete: the first three went to overtime, Game 4 ended in regulation, and the series is tied 2–2 after Tampa Bay erased Montreal’s 2–0 lead.
Game 1 · April 19, 2026
Benchmark International Arena · Tampa
Game 2 · April 21, 2026
Benchmark International Arena · Tampa
Game 3 · April 24, 2026
Bell Centre · Montreal
Game 4 · April 26, 2026
Bell Centre · Montreal
Games Played
Games 1–3 reached overtime. Game 4 ended in regulation.
MTL Goals
Montreal has scored 11 total goals through Game 4.
TBL Goals
Tampa Bay has scored 11 total goals through Game 4.
Goal Margin
The total-goal count is even through four games.
Series Control
Tampa Bay regained momentum by tying the series in Game 4.
Special Teams & Penalty Conversion
Series conversion based on power-play goals and power-play opportunities through Games 1–4.
Montreal Power Play
Montreal power-play goals on Tampa Bay penalty opportunities.
Efficiency: 20.0%
Tampa Bay Power Play
Tampa Bay power-play goals on Montreal penalty opportunities.
Efficiency: 17.2%
Series Pattern
Montreal remains slightly ahead by percentage, but Game 4’s timing favoured Tampa.
Tampa Pressure
Tampa has created more total power-play opportunities through four games.
Overtime Factor
Games 1–3 required overtime. Game 4 was decided in regulation after Tampa’s comeback.
Game 5 Key
Montreal must protect leads better, reduce penalties, and convert its power-play looks.
Game 1 Play-by-Play
Scoring and penalties only. Facts listed by period and timestamp.
1st Period
MTL 1 · TBL 0TBLBench penalty — too many men on the ice
MTLJosh Anderson scored
MTLAlex Newhook — tripping
MTLJuraj Slafkovsky — interference
MTLBench penalty — high-sticking
TBLBrandon Hagel — interference
2nd Period
MTL 2 · TBL 2TBLNikita Kucherov — high-sticking
MTLJosh Anderson — roughing
TBLYanni Gourde — roughing
MTLJosh Anderson — charging
TBLDarren Raddysh scored — power play
TBLBrandon Hagel scored
TBLConor Geekie — high-sticking
MTLJuraj Slafkovsky scored — power play
3rd + OT
MTL wins 4–3 OTTBLAnthony Cirelli — interference
MTLJuraj Slafkovsky scored — power play
MTLZack Bolduc — slashing
TBLBrandon Hagel scored — power play
TBLJake Guentzel — high-sticking
MTLJuraj Slafkovsky scored — power play
Game 2 Play-by-Play
Scoring and penalties only. Facts listed by period and timestamp.
1st Period
MTL 1 · TBL 1TBLBrandon Hagel scored
MTLBench penalty — roughing
TBLYanni Gourde — roughing
Multiple penalties to both teams
MTLLane Hutson scored — power play
TBLNick Paul — cross-checking
TBLYanni Gourde — roughing
2nd Period
MTL 2 · TBL 1MTLArber Xhekaj — roughing
MTLJuraj Slafkovsky — fighting
TBLBrandon Hagel — fighting
MTLKaiden Guhle — hooking
MTLJosh Anderson scored
TBLRyan McDonagh — roughing
3rd + OT
TBL wins 3–2 OTMTLIvan Demidov — tripping
TBLNikita Kucherov scored
TBLScott Sabourin — interference
TBLJ.J. Moser scored
Game 3 Play-by-Play
Scoring and penalties only. Facts listed by period and timestamp.
1st Period
MTL 1 · TBL 1MTLAlexandre Texier scored
MTLBench penalty — tripping
TBLBrayden Point scored — power play
MTLKirby Dach — tripping
TBLNikita Kucherov — tripping
MTLMike Matheson — hooking
2nd Period
MTL 2 · TBL 2TBLBrandon Hagel scored
MTLBench penalty — roughing
TBLErik Cernak — roughing
MTLIvan Demidov — high-sticking
MTLKirby Dach scored
TBLBrandon Hagel — holding the stick
TBLEmil Martinsen Lilleberg — hooking
TBLDarren Raddysh — high-sticking
3rd + OT
MTL wins 3–2 OTMTLJosh Anderson — high-sticking
MTLArber Xhekaj — roughing
MTLPhillip Danault — roughing
TBLEmil Martinsen Lilleberg — roughing
TBLZemgus Girgensons — roughing
MTLLane Hutson scored
Series Analytics Board
Condensed interpretation from Games 1–3: who scored, who converted, where the series turned, and what matters entering Game 5.
Montreal Scoring Profile
| Player / Group | Series Impact |
|---|---|
| Juraj Slafkovsky | Game 1 hat trick, including overtime power-play winner. |
| Lane Hutson | Game 2 power-play goal and Game 3 overtime winner. |
| Dach / Texier / Bolduc | Directly tied to Game 3 scoring and overtime setup. |
| Josh Anderson | Even-strength scoring in Games 1 and 2. |
Tampa Bay Scoring Profile
| Player / Group | Series Impact |
|---|---|
| Brandon Hagel | Multiple goals and direct scoring pressure across Games 1–3. |
| Kucherov / Guentzel | Primary drivers in Tampa’s power-play and top-line pressure. |
| Brayden Point | Game 3 power-play goal at 7:42. |
| J.J. Moser | Game 2 overtime winner. |
Series Turning Pattern
Game 3 Swing Chain
Montreal penalty begins the sequence.
Game 3 Correction
Kirby Dach ties the game after Montreal’s earlier penalty trouble.
Missed MTL Window
Tampa penalties at 14:05, 16:14, and 19:29 in Game 3. Montreal did not convert.
Decisive Moment
Lane Hutson ends Game 3 in overtime.
Game 4 Final Stat Board
Tampa Bay erased Montreal’s 2–0 lead and tied the series 2–2 with a 3–2 comeback win at Bell Centre.
Final Score
Lightning defeat Montreal 3–2.
Series Status
The first-round series is tied heading to Game 5.
Shot Count
Tampa Bay outshot Montreal by two.
Faceoffs Won
Montreal dominated the faceoff circle.
Hits
Montreal carried the physical edge.
Blocked Shots
Tampa Bay blocked slightly more shots.
Takeaways
Montreal led the takeaway count.
Giveaways
Tampa gave the puck away more often.
Game 4 Scoring Timeline
| Period / Time | Team | Scoring Play |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd · 10:06 | MTL | Zachary Bolduc. Assists: Kaiden Guhle, Alexandre Texier. Montreal 1–0. |
| 2nd · 13:29 | MTL | Cole Caufield — power play. Assists: Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson. Montreal 2–0. |
| 2nd · 19:06 | TBL | Jake Guentzel. Assists: J.J. Moser, Darren Raddysh. Montreal 2–1. |
| 3rd · 1:40 | TBL | Brandon Hagel — power play. Assists: Nikita Kucherov, Jake Guentzel. Tied 2–2. |
| 3rd · 15:07 | TBL | Brandon Hagel. Assists: Nikita Kucherov, J.J. Moser. Tampa Bay 3–2. |
Game 4 Team Stats
| Category | Tampa Bay | Montreal |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 20 | 18 |
| Hits | 28 | 50 |
| Faceoffs Won | 20 | 37 |
| Faceoff Win % | 35.1% | 64.9% |
| Power Play | 1 / 7 | 1 / 6 |
| Power Play % | 14.3% | 16.7% |
| Total Penalties | 8 | 9 |
| Penalty Minutes | 16 | 18 |
| Blocked Shots | 15 | 13 |
| Takeaways | 5 | 8 |
| Giveaways | 14 | 4 |
Game 4 Penalty Board
Both teams took repeated minors. Montreal had more penalty minutes, while both clubs scored once on the power play.
1st Period Penalties
| Time | Team | Penalty |
|---|---|---|
| 2:04 | MTL | Bench minor — too many men, served by Juraj Slafkovsky. |
| 7:22 | TBL | Maxwell Crozier — high-sticking. |
| 9:10 | TBL | Yanni Gourde — cross-checking. |
2nd Period Penalties
| Time | Team | Penalty |
|---|---|---|
| 0:41 | MTL | Josh Anderson — boarding, served by Alexandre Texier. |
| 10:24 | MTL | Alex Newhook — hooking. |
| 12:24 | TBL | Jake Guentzel — slashing. |
| 13:48 | MTL | Arber Xhekaj — roughing. |
| 13:48 | MTL | Kirby Dach — roughing. |
| 13:48 | TBL | Nick Paul — roughing. |
| 13:48 | TBL | Zemgus Girgensons — roughing. |
| 13:58 | TBL | Darren Raddysh — delay of game. |
| 18:05 | MTL | Mike Matheson — slashing. |
| 18:33 | TBL | Brandon Hagel — slashing. |
3rd Period Penalties
| Time | Team | Penalty |
|---|---|---|
| 0:51 | MTL | Oliver Kapanen — high-sticking. |
| 10:44 | MTL | Mike Matheson — high-sticking. |
| 11:33 | MTL | Jake Evans — cross-checking. |
| 17:27 | TBL | Nikita Kucherov — slashing. |
Goaltending Board
Updated through Game 4. Dobes and Vasilevskiy have played every game of the series.
Jakub Dobes · Montreal
Series record through Game 4.
| Game | Result | Saves / Goals Against |
|---|---|---|
| Game 1 | Win · MTL 4–3 OT | 20 saves / 3 goals against |
| Game 2 | Loss · TBL 3–2 OT | 31 saves / 3 goals against |
| Game 3 | Win · MTL 3–2 OT | 15 saves / 2 goals against |
| Game 4 | Loss · TBL 3–2 | 17 saves / 3 goals against |
Andrei Vasilevskiy · Tampa Bay
Series record through Game 4.
| Game | Result | Saves / Goals Against |
|---|---|---|
| Game 1 | Loss · MTL 4–3 OT | 15 saves / 4 goals against |
| Game 2 | Win · TBL 3–2 OT | 25 saves / 2 goals against |
| Game 3 | Loss · MTL 3–2 OT | 26 saves / 3 goals against |
| Game 4 | Win · TBL 3–2 | 16 saves / 2 goals against |
Game 5 Prediction Board
The series shifts to Tampa tied 2–2. Tampa owns the momentum; Montreal owns the faceoff and physical-contact edge but must fix lead protection.
Momentum
Tampa Bay has the psychological edge after scoring three unanswered in Game 4.
Prediction Range
Estimated Tampa Bay win probability based on home ice, Game 4 momentum, and special-teams timing.
Montreal range: 38–42%
Projected Score
Prediction: Tampa Bay wins Game 5 unless Montreal converts early power-play pressure and keeps Tampa under three goals.
Montreal Path to Game 5
| Area | Required Adjustment |
|---|---|
| Lead Protection | Keep attacking after scoring first. The Game 4 collapse started when Tampa was allowed to build clean pressure. |
| Power Play | Montreal is 5-for-25 in the series. A Game 5 win likely requires at least one power-play goal. |
| Discipline | Reduce Tampa’s power-play chances. Tampa has had 29 opportunities through four games. |
| Goaltending | Dobes needs a bounce-back game closer to .900 or better. |
| Faceoffs | Montreal dominated Game 4 draws 37–20. They must turn that puck control into more than 18 shots. |
Tampa Bay Path to Game 5
| Area | Expected Strategy |
|---|---|
| Forecheck | Pressure Montreal’s breakout and force rushed exits. |
| Top-Line Pressure | Kucherov, Guentzel, Hagel, and Moser drove the Game 4 comeback. |
| Special Teams | Keep forcing Montreal into penalty sequences. One third-period power-play goal changed Game 4. |
| Game State | If trailing early, remain patient. Game 4 proved Montreal’s lead protection can crack. |
| Goaltending | Vasilevskiy only needs clean sightlines if Montreal remains low volume. |
Series Swing Timeline
The core moments that frame Game 5.
Game 1
Slafkovsky completes the power-play hat trick and Montreal steals Game 1 in Tampa.
Game 2
Moser wins it for Tampa Bay and ties the series 1–1.
Game 3
Hutson scores at 2:09 of overtime. Montreal takes a 2–1 series lead.
Game 4
Hagel scores twice in the third. Tampa erases a 2–0 deficit and ties the series 2–2.
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