Betweenplays looks at every type of investment, including the ones to ourselves; our minds, bodies and of course the bottom line.
This new Variant is just decimating the stock market and threatens to disrupt our lives once again as we were and are so close to getting back to our ways of life.
Let us take a look at the stock market, we can easily see the red bloodbath, my Cruise line stocks are taking a nasty beating once again and it is all based on a what if.
Thats right, based on a what if this variant is more contagious or more deadly.
From my understanding, based on our scientists and the scientists out of Africa that isolated this variant, AKA Omicron; this variant, seems to be more contagious but more mild in symptoms. Supposedly because of the amount of mutations it has undergone and as a consequence, weakened it.
Seems as though fatigue for two days and the sniffles isn’t such a bad thing when compared to a tube down your throat, lungs being ravaged etc….
Supposedly our vaccines are effective to a certain degree, less effective but still effective, therefore not avoiding immunity and the booster increases this effectiveness.
So why all the meltdown, there’s a few variants on the variant of Concern list Alpha Betta Gamma Delta and now Omicron.
Did I sell my Cruise lines?
No I didn’t because I do not sell based on what if’s, naturally had I known when the stock was at 25$ I would have sold knowing the massive sell off was coming and I would have just increased my position at a lower average, being back at 15$ would have been sweeeeet.
You see, I have been in carnival Cruise Lines when it was hovering around 8.50$, I have made a lot of money on the highs and lows, buying and selling and I didn’t see this one coming therefore I couldn’t take advantage of it.
Am I worried?
Yes and no.
Let us take a look at both answers.
Yes I am worried because I always wonder if there’s something other than what is being said, I always question double speak, if I see contradictory evidence or statements by opposing political parties, I try to find what is the similarities and what I can distinguish as truth. Is there a bigger game plan. Is this virus more deadly! Can I handle the truth?
No, Im not worried because maybe it’s a tactic, market manipulation to sell high in order to buy low or its part of the green agenda or it is a new virus more contagious but less deadly, whatever it may, I can not live in what if’s.
No I need to stay grounded in, what is!
What is really happening at this moment, what is truth, the past is no longer but memories of days of old, those that live in the past are doomed to never move forward, we should only carry our experiences with us.
Those that attempt to live out their future playing out an unlimited, infinite, never-ending, immeasurable, incalculable, inestimable, inexhaustible world of possibilities is insane, “the only certainty in life is that it is uncertain”, (Charles F. Glassman)!!
It is good to plan, based on research and move forward using gained experience but not living in a what if scenario!
It should only used to calculate a trajectory and nothing else, if you are not able to estimate probabilities and judge the roads you should take, living in what if’s can fixate a person in place, it can take over your mind and it isn’t healthy.
I’m under my cost average for cruise lines and I have been overweight many times with cruise lines and it has paid off. I was still modestly overweight because the CDC had given the cruise lines January 15th of 2022 to set their covid rules, cruise lines fleets were expected to be 75% in the water by spring and 100% of their fleet in the water by beginning of the 2022 summer.
I also took into consideration cruise lines bookings and Royal Carribeans six (6) month world cruise trip booking for all the coming years and the bookings are seriously impressive with a 274 night package, imagine people thought that the cruising industry is dead and this thing is selling out like pancakes, go take a look, click this link to see what this package includes and you will see how beautiful and jaw dropping this package really is, they are offering the ultimate once in a lifetime package!
Betweenplays believes in hard research and enjoys a healthy debate in order to make the research more in credible, we look at the depth or breadth of every situation, do we get it always right, of course not, we aren’t the almighty entity. We like to see whats the bigger picture, to put on blinders is to limit oneself and in the Stockmarket as in life; we can not allow ourselves to lack critical thinking.
We also emphasize one should prepare-plan and execute.
We are overweight cruise lines but not by much, our portfolio is well diversified.
This is where the hardest part comes in and that is to stay strong.
I’m not talking head strong but emotionally strong.
Did I want to sell my cruise lines at a loss?
yes I did!
On Friday November 26th, I decided I needed to research and keep a cool head, be cold as ice. I set out to learn what I could based on what is out there on the new variant Omicron from every possible angle, through every news outlet that the internet allows me to reach!
In those horrifying morning moments on Friday November 26th as I saw the stock market take a hit bleed out red, I had also prepared myself with as much knowledge as what was available and that was, the new variant seems to be more contagious but it is milder in nature.
Ok, well to me, thats not such a bad thing, sure, chalk it up to ignorance or maybe there’s something to be said about layman’s terms understandings. So the trade off is a weak mutated virus although more contagious (Omicron), sounds great compared to a very contagious and deadly (Delta).
So should we live in what ifs!?
I think I got to enjoy the WHAT If concept at a very young age, WHAT IF comic books, a more technical version at McGill risk assessment and in life!
As a child into my teen years:
I was a huge comic book collector and LOVED the WHAT IF series……they were amazing!!!!
Seeing the stuff that never happened or may never happen….incredible….but even as child or all of us comic book enthusiasts knew, WHAT IF, is a non reality of marvel and a look into probabilities, it had nothing to do with our real world marvel collection!
How about just regular life events:
Well, what if I cross the street and someone texting on their phone goes through the red light, what if I see them last second and jump back, what if I jumped back into oncoming traffic from other direction, what if the driver of the new car going to hit me was a race car driver and swerved, what if there was black ice, what if what if what if…..
What if I missed that metro or Tube, like in the 1998 cult classic sliding doors!
What if we live everyday in fear that an asteroid ☄️ coming from the suns direction may collide with earth 🌎 since we can’t see anything coming from that direction, should we stop living and live in fear of what if! Because an extinction level asteroid hitting earth coming in from the suns direction can happen, who knows, thats life, we must live!
It never ends!!!!!!
Living in what if’s is ridiculous!!!!
When I was at McGill U:
We would look at probabilities of a car crashing or plane crashing or a swing dislodging or whatever! Point is, we calculated what if’s, there are formulas that exist for this!!!
What if’s are important in calculating risk!!!!!
Great for probabilities!!!!!
Tools for statisticians!!!
Tools for an Actuarial!!!
It’s a great way to prepare for the worst but hope for the best!!!
Sure we can live in the what if’s world, live in fear, become stagnant or fixated, it is not living in reality; I would rather live in reality! Living in what if’s is not something I plan to do or entertain.
If we must take a safe vaccine to stop a threat, so be it sign me up.
This is why, as an investor, I chose to stay strong on my cruise line investment and not let emotions take the better of me! I will stick to the facts and I will adapt, I have chosen not to sell my cruise lines on a what if!
I will not take an unrealized loss and realize the loss based on a probability that is already swaying on the side of mild symptoms which might replace the more deadly Delta variant!
Why do I say this, because Omicron is more contagious and therefore it may overtake and replace the deadly Delta version with a milder Omicron version….who knows but these things do happen and these situations have occurred in our past, I am not a scientist but a person that likes to read and investigate.
Scientific America has even written about these types of situations, only time will tell!
In my opinion, no investor should solely sell and take a massive loss on a what if, each position taken in buying or selling should be based on extensive research, a well diversified portfolio and execution based on a non emotional basis!?
Good luck to us all!
Betweenplays Stockmarket Strategies.
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This article is for entertainment and educational purposes only.
By Aidan Lock
Commentary writer for Betweenplays Stockmarket&Sports Blog.